Conclusions

The present study is the first and most detailed generalized climatic investigation of threatening and hazardous meteorological phenomena based on observations in the Russian Arctic and Central Arctic Basin at the polar research stations and the North Pole drifting stations. The analysis was performed using primary data sets on long-term meteorological observations together with a single consistent methodology for analyzing the various meteorological elements based on the criteria approved by the Russian Hydrometeorological Office.

Studies of the spatial and temporal distribution of the various HMPs have made it possible to estimate the spatial scales of these phenomena and to establish a set of very important criteria for practical operational activities. Among the results obtained in this study, we emphasize the following:

  1. Chronologies for the period 1950 to 1990 have been developed for high speed winds, frosts, fogs, glaze and certain other phenomena characteristic of the Arctic environment, including the data from 80 polar stations and the entire set of North Pole drifting stations.

  2. Average monthly and annual values of the number of days with various HMPs observed at the stations referred to above have been calculated, annual variability of the HMPs obtained, and the occurrence of extreme cases specified.

  3. Contour maps of the number of days per year have been developed in particular for highly dangerous wind speeds (for speeds of 15, 25, and 30 meters per second or more), snowstorms (with wind speeds of 15 and 25 meters per second or more), severe low temperatures (air temperature -30, -40, -50 degrees Celsius or below), fogs (with visibility 100 meters or less), glaze (layer thicknesses of 5 millimeters or more), daily rainfall (30 millimeters or more), hail, and thunderstorms. The volume of snow transport is also described. These maps make it possible to estimate the frequency and intensities of HMPs for unstudied regions.

  4. The interannual variability in the number of days per year with various HMPs has been estimated. This has demonstrated the presence of short-term variability in the observed time series. It has identified decreasing trends in frequency of high-speed winds and snowstorms in the study region, as well as the absence of a significant trend in the frequency of low air-temperature events.

  5. A detailed specification of the Russian Arctic regions has been developed according to the extent of occurrence of the HMPs in each region. Over large climatic sectors, four distinct zones have been assigned based on a combination of the probabilities of the various hazardous phenomena and taking into account the dependence on local factors.

  6. The present study demonstrates the necessity of (A) specifying more accurately the existing criteria for hazardous meteorological phenomena under arctic conditions, (B) finding their connection with hazardous hydrological phenomena on the continent and at sea, and (C) expanding and completing the list of elements, including meteorological phenomena, connected with ecology [31].

To prepare new guidelines with respect to HMPs, it is necessary to include personal health and safety as a basic constraint, to introduce, where relevant, compound indices for HMPs (for example, combined temperature and wind indices). A section should also be included on ecologically hazardous contaminants of the atmosphere and other media linking them with the hydrometeorological characteristics. It is also vital to take into account unidirectional climate changes which have the potential to cause considerably more ecological and economic damage than the sum total of all currently identified HMPs taken together [35]. The warning system for HMPs must include a direct high-priority means of informing the population through mass communication.

Results of the present study can serve as a basis to develop and refine the meteorological indices and standards, which are applied in building codes and regulations for the arctic area of the northern constructional zone, and to correct existing manuals and courses of instruction on hazardous meteorological phenomena. These results may be considered as a definite contribution towards the implementation of the international program of the United Nations on the abatement of damage due to natural disasters.